A dealer told me they are not getting any new 2008 Caymans and they only have 4 2008 left. It would seem to me that:
with the 2009/2010 not coming out until spring of 2009,
the upgraded fuel injection,
the value of the euro to the dollar,
the body style change,
that the MSRP of the 09/10 cayman should be higher then the current cayman is,
dealers will probably not be discounting the 09/10 as much,
the low production numbers.
That the value of used 2006-2008 caymans should go up as many may not want to spend the extra $$ on a new one. Am I wrong?

It will be interesting to see the effect of the euro vs dollar on the MSRP of the new Cayman, assuming it comes out in 2009. The production cost is a "fixed" number (in euros), so the pricing decision in dollars and the supply sent to the US vs other parts of the world might result in "upward" pressure on used Cayman prices. However, Cayman prices are already depressed by the economy and the falling prices seem to be continuing. I guess the "dealer" sponsors won't be commenting on this one.

There sure are a lot of independent variables in this equation, but my expectations are that: (1) MSRP of the new caymans will be somewhat higher; (2) dealers will be giving smaller discounts on the new Caymans (at least until demand cools); and (3) the market value of used Caymans will continue to decline.

Only the third prediction differs from what was initially posted, but used Porsches very rarely increase in market value this early. The rate of depreciation may slow somewhat, but I don't think that happened to used Boxster values when the Cayman S came out.

Yes, I think you are wrong. They will continue to depreciate.

Yes. The value will climb dramatically if your car is in pristine condition.

Starting 300 years from now.

Until then it will depreciate.

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2007 Speed Yellow Cayman GT 2.7 (retired)
2008 Guards Red Cayman GT 3.4
"Carpe Cayman"

A nice thought, but there is a snowballs chance in hell of our cars appreciating.

Brian

I think I see where you're coming from, but I think it's more likely that the value of used Caymans will just depreciate more slowly if this scenario is the case. Although I must say I am in no way a Financial/Automotive industry/Economics guru.

Dealers use the Dollar vs Euro to scare people into buying now.

But, I've read some Porsche financial reviews that say they have the exchange rate hedged and covered until 2011 or 2012( I can't remember which)....so fluctuations will not effect prices in any major way.

What's also funny, is in the last few days, the dollar has gotten stronger (Russian tanks on the move in Georgia...and slow-downs in European economies). Its funny how fast things change.

Expect the price to increase by around $1,200 dollars for the next models. Not a big deal. This is based on applying the same percentage increase we've seen on the 2009 911's. (Some of this price increase may be further offset by the addition of new standard features- like the rumored upgrade to the headlights and stereo).

The entire luxury car market is falling. Lots of talk about the depreciate in the Ferrari market lately. Too many cars for sale and prices are dropping monthly.
Ferrari is trying to limit its dealers from advertising prices. They don't want future buyers to realize how much extra glut is in their inventory.

The last factor to consider.... is the home equity loan. Many luxury cars were purchased with rising equity in home values. With the decline in home equity loans, you are seeing a lot less purchasing power chasing luxury items like cars and boats.

While you identified some supply side factors that help, there's also the demand side, and there's nothing positive going on there right now.

But look on the bright side - the depreciation rate won't be as bad as it is for the 911 Turbo!

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2008 Cayman 2.7
2006 Mercedes-Benz CLS500 (Wife)
2007 Jeep Commander (Son)
2000 GMC Sierra Truck